The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has identified the new tax laws and macroeconomic stability among several factors that will expand the Nigerian economy by at least 5.5% this year.
In its latest policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, the think tank argued that 2026 would be a good year for the country as a result of the unwavering commitment of the federal administration to ongoing reforms.
It said: “For us, understanding the background to the current developments and the philosophical underpinning of the economy, we submit that the year 2026 would be Nigeria’s boom year yet.
“We did not arrive at this projection lightly. First, as now attested to by global and domestic economic players, the Nigerian economy has been a well-managed affair since the reforms kick-started in 2023.
“We commend the Federal Government for staying the course despite the initial economic headwinds. These storms were the result of the economy adapting to the hypodermic impact of the reforms.
“The tax reforms, which took effect on January 1, 2026, are projected to improve Nigeria’s tax mobilization.
“The federation’s revenue is expected to strengthen further, driven by the phased implementation of tax reforms, tighter compliance enforcement, expanded use of digital revenue systems, and improved remittance discipline across revenue-generating agencies.
“In addition, Nigeria’s tax reforms will redefine how manufacturers operate, invest, and plan for growth. The law signals a clear policy shift towards a more coordinated and incentive-driven fiscal environment, particularly for the manufacturing sector.
“At the centre of the reforms are the newly-introduced Economic Development Tax Incentives targeting priority sectors such as manufacturing. Under the scheme, eligible companies can obtain an Economic Development Incentive Certificate, granting a five percent annual tax credit on qualifying capital expenditure for up to five years. Firms that reinvest profits may access longer incentive periods, while some manufacturing-related transactions are exempt from stamp duties.”
IMPI cited increasing capital acquisition by private sector operators in the last few years among indicators of a boom in the economy.
“A major indicator of an expanding economy is the increasing capital acquisition by private sector operators.Nigerian companies, particularly in the oil, gas, telecoms, banking, industrial goods and agricultural sectors, are actively acquiring property, plant, and equipment to expand operations and strengthen market positions.
“Key 2025 transactions include MTN Nigeria Communications Plc, which topped the list with N539.6 billion, Presco Plc’s 10,000-hectare plantation acquisition in Cross River and Ellah Lakes Plc’s acquisition of over 11,700 hectares across four states, among others.
“Large-scale investments are aimed at building capacity to meet consumer demand and reduce reliance on imports. This has direct consequences on production. More impressively, Nigeria has moved up 15 places to 4th in Africa for foreign exchange accessibility according to the Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2025.
“FX accessibility is a major bulwark in the measure of ease and convenience of doing business especially for foreign direct investors.
“The country has made one of its biggest improvements over the years in terms of how easy it is for investors to get and use foreign exchange. This achievement is a result of the sweeping FX reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Developments in financial account also supported the overall economic outcome with Foreign Direct Investment inflows rising to $720 million in Third Quarter 2025, while portfolio investment reached $2.51 billion, reflecting a stronger non-resident participation in domestic debt and equity markets.
“We see a further rise in foreign direct investment in 2026 along with increased access to FX,” IMPI noted”
The think tank also envisaged a continuation of macroeconomic stability which according to it will enhance manufacturing output.
“Macroeconomic stability is the cornerstone of any successful effort to increase private sector development and economic growth.
“Cross-country regression analysis using a large sample of countries suggest that growth, investment, and productivity are positively correlated with macroeconomic stability which
exists when key economic relationships are in balance, for example, among domestic demand and output, the balance of payments, fiscal revenues and expenditure, and savings and investment, “it added.
