The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has challenged claims by power generation companies that Nigeria’s stranded electricity is largely the result of transmission bottlenecks, insisting that the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (NERC) First Quarter 2026 report shows the country’s power shortfall is primarily driven by limited generation availability.
In a statement issued on Thursday, the transmission utility said recent claims by the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC), reported by THISDAY, that over 2,500 megawatts of electricity is stranded daily because of grid unreliability were not supported by the industry’s own regulatory data.
According to TCN, NERC’s audited report showed that the average available generation capacity declared by the country’s 28 grid-connected power plants in the first quarter of 2026 stood at 4,457.96MW, a figure submitted by the generating companies themselves.
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The company argued that the figure closely matches the 4,500MW transmission limit cited by APGC, indicating that the limitation originated from available generation rather than the transmission network.
“The Commission’s own data places the source of the gap at the power station fence, not the transmission gate,” TCN stated.
The company also disputed suggestions that the national grid could only wheel about 4,500MW, maintaining that its verified transmission wheeling capacity has risen to 8,700MW following sustained investments in transmission infrastructure.
TCN noted that the grid had already demonstrated higher capability by successfully transmitting a record peak generation of 5,801.84MW on March 4, 2025, alongside a record daily energy delivery of 128,370.75 megawatt-hours.
It added that additional peak transmissions of 5,713.60MW and 5,543.20MW were recorded in March and February 2025 respectively, arguing that such performances would have been impossible if the grid were constrained to 4,500MW.
The company further cited major investments undertaken between January 2024 and November 2025, including the installation of 82 new power transformers with an additional 8,500MVA transformation capacity, reconductoring of critical transmission lines and the commissioning of new 330kV transmission projects linking Ihovbor to Benin and Ajaokuta.
According to TCN, the new projects added more than 600MW of wheeling capacity to the Benin transmission corridor and created room to evacuate up to 1.5GW from the Azura Power Plant and the National Integrated Power Project plant at Ihovbor when operating at full capacity.
The transmission company also relied on NERC’s Plant Availability Factor (PAF) data, which showed that only 32.72 per cent of the country’s installed generation capacity was available for dispatch during the first quarter, meaning over two-thirds of installed capacity was unavailable.
It highlighted several power stations with extremely low availability, including Alaoji I, which recorded zero per cent availability throughout the quarter, Rivers I at 2.05 per cent, Ibom Power and Sapele Steam at 2.67 per cent each, Trans Amadi at 8.41 per cent and Omotosho II at 6.15 per cent.
TCN said these reflected gas supply shortages, mechanical failures and maintenance outages rather than transmission constraints.
The company noted that APGC itself acknowledged in the report that gas supply to thermal plants had fallen below 43 per cent of daily requirements, describing the admission as consistent with NERC’s findings.
It also pointed to reduced hydropower output caused by seasonal low water levels and maintenance outages at Jebba, Shiroro, Kainji and Dadin-Kowa power stations.
On claims that between 2,500MW and 4,000MW of electricity was stranded daily, TCN argued that NERC’s load factor data did not support such assertions.
The report, it said, showed an overall grid load factor of 92.26 per cent in the first quarter, implying that only about 345MW of available generation went undispatched on average.
The company added that five generating plants — Trans Amadi, Geregu, Ibom Power, Dadin-Kowa and Olorunsogo — recorded 100 per cent load factors during the period, indicating that all the power they declared available was successfully evacuated by the grid.
TCN also rejected claims that transmission technical losses amounted to between 1,200MW and 1,300MW daily.
It explained that NERC recorded a Transmission Loss Factor of 7.96 per cent, equivalent to an average of about 327MW, while much of the reported ₦2.61 billion transmission underperformance cost related to GenCo capacity penalties rather than actual transmission losses.
On recent grid disturbances, the company distinguished between separate incidents recorded in January 2026.
It said while the January 23 total grid collapse resulted from a busbar separation at the Sapele Transmission Station, the January 27 partial system collapse was attributed by NERC to inadequate reactive power support, which falls within broader system operations rather than transmission infrastructure alone.
TCN further argued that the reported ₦2.28 trillion GenCo capacity payment losses were more closely linked to commercial challenges within the electricity market.
It cited NERC’s findings that distribution companies recorded Aggregate Technical, Commercial and Collection losses of 37.44 per cent against a regulatory target of 16.92 per cent in the first quarter, translating to an estimated revenue loss of ₦140.64 billion, alongside a ₦24.95 billion remittance shortfall to the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc and the Market Operator.
While acknowledging that the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry continues to face significant operational challenges and that transmission infrastructure requires continuous investment, TCN maintained that available evidence does not support characterising Nigeria’s stranded power challenge as primarily a transmission wheeling problem.
The company called on industry stakeholders to rely on NERC’s published quarterly data in assessing sector challenges, saying evidence-based discussions would help direct reforms to the areas where they are most needed.
