One of Nigeria’s foremost policy groups, the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has picked holes in demands by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) for increased salaries and allowances to workers in the aftermath of the conflict in the Middle East.
Organised Labour had amongst others demanded payment of wage award and new allowances for all civil servants to cushion the rising cost of living as well as suspension of taxes for low-income earners from the expected windfall from the surge in oil prices.
But in a policy statement signed by the IMPI Chairman Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, the think tank insisted that NLC demands were inappropriate against the background of what the administration had been doing since 2023.
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It added that NLC’s position amounts to sacrificing long-term economic success for short-term benefits for a few people.
IMPI said: “Oddly enough, this plethora of demands by the NLC was predicated on the recent projections by the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG), signifying that the country may gain an estimated N30 trillion oil wind fall from the ongoing Middle East crisis. We consider this proposal rather inappropriate in the context of the age-long principle that admonishes that ‘one cannot eat the seeds and expect to reap a harvest.’
” The principle underscores that consuming resources (time, money, talent, etc.) intended for growth prevents future returns, in line with the biblical concept of reaping what you sow. It advises against sacrificing long-term success for short-term gratification.
” Against the thrust of this principle, the implication of the NLC’s demands is an insistence that the Federal Government share with workers the anticipated N30 trillion that may accrue to the federation. However, in our opinion, this N30 trillion, if it truly crystallises as projected, holds the key to galvanising the growth of the Nigerian economy compared to any possible outcome that would be recorded if shared with formal sector workers under the ambit of the NLC.
“The fact of the matter is that formal workers represent just about 15 per cent of Nigeria’s total workforce, with over 85 per cent engaged in the informal economy. With a total labour force exceeding 113 million, who will care for the more than 96 million Nigerians in the informal sector if those in the formal sector alone share the anticipated windfall from the Middle East crisis?
” We find the NLC’s proposal at this time myopic, especially coming from a workers’ union with a history of engagement with various governments and, ostensibly, has an understanding of the undercurrents of the national economy at different times.”
IMPI also noted that inspite of increase in fuel since the outbreak of war in the middle East, Nigeria is not under any threat to its economy.
” We agree, in fact, that since the commencement of hostilities in the Middle East, there has been an increase in the cost of living of Nigerians because of the 34 per cent rise in the pump price of premium motor spirit (PMS) over the last three weeks, with attendant spill-over on the cost of transport and logistics. Nonetheless, we are quick to insist that the historical circumstances that causally enfeeble the Nigerian national economy at the first sign of global oil market disruption no longer obtain in the current form of the Nigerian economy under the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led federal administration.
“We recall that between 2000 and 2015, there were several global oil price surges, peaking near $ 110 in 2011-2014. However, the increased revenue to the national coffers in those years merely accrued at the expense of domestic petrol scarcity, due to heavy reliance on imports and a corruption-laden subsidy regime. For context, we note that fuel prices rose by more than 90 per cent, from ₦22 to ₦40 per litre, between 2002 and 2003, amid significant supply disruptions across the country.
“Again, between 2007 and 2008, due to a global demand surge, crude oil prices hit record highs. This was accompanied by massive fraudulent subsidy payments to petrol importers, which, unfortunately, resulted in large fiscal deficits despite high revenue. This scenario was further reflected between 2011 and 2014 when oil prices skyrocketed again.
”We further note that from 2007 to 2008 and between 2011 and 2014, when Nigeria sold oil at around $100 per barrel on average, with resultant high revenue to the federation, increases in poverty, maternal mortality, unemployment, and environmental challenges permeated the nook and cranny of the country.
”As a matter of fact, official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed a rise in the incidence of absolute poverty during this time, moving from approximately 54.4 per cent of the population in 2007, that is 78.6 million Nigerians, to 60.9 per cent in 2010, (about 96.2 million Nigerians). The poverty level increased to about 116.9 million Nigerians in 2012. This reflects a period in which economic growth was often criticised for failing to translate into significant poverty reduction,” it said.
The think tank explained the difference between the previous situation and that of the past three years which according to it has been a story of economic resilience due to a fundamental shift in the national economy.
” This depressing 2002 to 2014 scenario does not compare in the least to the emerging national economic outlook for 2026, in the context of the ongoing global oil price surge, domestic fuel availability, and, most importantly, the extent of the nation’s macroeconomic stability.
“Against this backdrop, the projected crude oil and gas windfall is better used to enhance the economic resilience being deliberately nurtured through various federal administration’s policy conceptualisation and deployment.
”Indeed, as reviewed below, our analysis of the nation’s critical economic indicators over the last three years demonstrates a fundamental shift in the Nigerian economy.
“In 2015, the year immediately following the years of global crude price surge between 2011 and 2014, rather than increasing, Nigeria’s GDP declined from a high of $576 billion in 2014 to approximately $494.31 billion (at current prices) in 2015. Distressingly, the economy grew by 2.35 per cent in real terms (year-on-year) during the second quarter of 2015, marking a slowdown from 6.54 per cent growth in the same quarter of 2014, a manifestation of an economy lacking resilience despite the huge accruals as a result of revenue earned during the oil boom years.
” The dismal turn of the nation’s economy, as recorded from the second quarter of 2015, when Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 2.35 per cent year-on-year, from the initial low of 3.96 per cent growth in the first quarter of 2015, was a clear indication of a badly managed economy as the then federal administration exited presidential power.
” In contrast to that era, Nigeria’s GDP figure, after an integrity-driven rebasing, reached N441.53 trillion in 2025, an increase of N68.71 trillion, or 18.43 per cent, from the preceding year. In dollar terms, nominal GDP rose to approximately $308 billion, up from $241 billion in 2024, a $67 billion recovery. This shows a growth momentum in the economy and marks the first positive increase in Nigeria’s dollar GDP since 2019, when the economy stood at $569 billion,” it added.
